European Union: Economic Outlook Revised Downward for Summer 2020

On 7 July, the European Commission revised its spring economic growth forecast to reveal a deeper than expected economic contraction ahead. The original estimate of -7.4 percent GDP growth year-on-year this summer for the EU is now -8.3 percent, attributed to a slower than expected pace for lifting COVID-19 lockdown measures.

• The Commission expects no EU country will record positive economic growth in 2020.
• While Italy, Spain, Croatia, and France are all poised for double digit contractions this summer, Portugal received the Commission's largest negative revision, dropping an additional three percentage points to -9.8 percent GDP growth YoY in 2020.