United States: New Twists in COVID-19 Statistics

(Published: 21 June 2020. Updated: 19 August 2020)  In August, after the US CDC relinquished direct control over US COVID-19 statistics, daily cases started to decline while deaths stabilized at nearly 1,000 deaths per day. Analysis of COVID-19 statistics collected by the COVID Tracking Project now shows that at least half of the decrease in daily cases between July 29 and August 17 is explained by falling testing rates.

• COVID cases decreased by 21 percent between July 29 and August 17, while testing decreased by 11 percent. Without that decrease in testing rates, all else held equal, US daily COVID cases would be down by only just over 10 percent. 
• The declining testing trend is not isolated, but a reality reported by 44 states and the District of Columbia during the first half of August. Washington state, an area of early community spread in the United States, reported a 96 percent decreasing in testing over this period - 200-500 tests per day compared to 20,000 per day in mid July.