(15 June 2021) The US natural gas spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana — the benchmark price reference for the US natural gas market and an important price reference in global gas trading — will average $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, a 51% increase from the 2020 average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency attributes this year's price growth to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increasing domestic natural gas consumption outside of the power sector. In 2022, Henry Hub prices are expected to decrease to $2.93/MMBtu due to slowing growth in LNG exports and rising US natural gas production.
The World Bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasts US natural gas prices to remain close to current levels over the rest of 2021, averaging $2.80/MMBtu, which marks a 39% rebound from 2020. The report cites global economic recovery, cold weather, and supply disruptions as the main drivers of the rebound in prices this year. The World Bank expects the other two benchmarks, European and Japanese natural gas import prices, to show different dynamics in 2021, with a steeper increase in European prices and a small decline in Japanese prices.
The consensus forecast for 2021 from the four leading sources — EIA, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the Canadian Government — is $2.81/MMBtu, which is 39% higher than in 2020. See the charts below to compare forecasts from different sources and analyze supply and demand forces.
Natural gas is widely used in energy generation, transportation, commercial, and household sectors, as well as in energy-intensive industries such as chemical, iron and steel manufacturing. The United States, Europe, Russia, and China, the top four natural gas consumers, together accounted for 53% of global consumption in 2019.
Price forecasts for other critical commodities:
gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | crude oil
The Energy Data Brief offers key statistics designed to help energy market watchers anticipate and respond to developments in the energy sector as well as changes in related industries and investments.
(9 June 2021) The aluminum price reached the value of $2,534 per metric ton on May 7th of this year, the highest price since the two-year high in April 2018. The consensus forecast for 2021 from three leading sources (the IMF, the World Bank, and Innovation and Science Australia, an advisory board to the Australian government) is $2,072 per metric ton. The rise in aluminum prices is a result of high demand in China and growing concerns that China's new climate policy, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, could limit future supply of the metal. In 2020, China...
(28 June 2021) Zinc prices showed 50% growth year-over-year in May 2021, an increase to $2,965 per metric ton from $1,975 in May 2020. The increase followed a two-year decline of 45% from the ten-year high of $3,500 in 2018. The price is currently 11.5% above the 5-year moving average — a figure analysts were not expecting, since zinc demand is declining in the era of COVID-19. Several key supply and demand drivers are playing a role. The upward price drivers are as follows: Disruption of zinc concentrate supplies due to the suspension of large zinc mines as a result of the...
The US shale production boom and recovery of global oil prices following the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 created an attractive environment for new LNG projects. But continued investment and the trade routes that emerge from contracts between producers and consumers are subject to change, as we are witnessing now in the context of the increasingly acrimonious trade dynamic between the United States and China. In August, China floated a 25 percent tariff on LNG imports from the United States in response to the mounting use of tariffs by the US Government against Chinese...
(28 June 2021) Nickel prices were up 44% year-over-year in May 2021, from $12,179 to $17,577 per metric ton. Since the 13-year low in February 2016, nickel prices have been showing strong cyclical growth. The World Bank, in its commodity forecast report, estimated that nickel prices will fall to a low of $16,000 per metric ton in 2022, but they expect the average spot price for nickel will grow slightly further after the correction, reaching $18,000 per metric ton by the end of the year. The IMF's metal cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) report revealed an expected rise from...
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