US Election Wildcard: Education

(4 September 2020) Whether you're talking about trade school, associates, or other higher education degrees, the more educated the members of a society, the better. And, yet, President Trump could have cause to not only disagree but to be concerned.

• The failure of pollsters to adequately account for educational attainment leading into the 2016 US presidential election contributed to a bias in favor of a win for the Democratic Party.  2016 US election exit polls showed that 34 percent of voters were whites without a college degree, however, according to a post-election study of voter registration files from Pew Research, this group accounted for 45 percent of all US voters.
• US Census data shows that between the 2004 and 2016 elections the share of US voters with a college degree increased from 34 percent to 40 percent. If this trend continues, voters with a college degree will account for 43 percent of all US voters this November.
• And, in potential swing states, the share of voters with a college degree will increase from 31-48 percent in 2016 to 33-52 percent in 2020. That means, on average, voters with a college degree will account for more than 41 percent of voters in potential swing states compared to 38 percent in 2016.

Given that President Trump's electorate base from an education lens is strongest among Americans with a high school degree or less, the question is who turns out to vote. The Economist / YouGov poll featured below confirms the strong, persistent polarization of US voters by the level of educational attainment. Trump has the advantage over Biden only among voters with high school education attainment or less. Will they be mobilized to get to the polls (or mail in their ballots) come November?