International Monetary Fund

Data cited at: Consumer price indexes, The International Monetary Fund Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are index numbers that measure changes in the prices of goods and services purchased or otherwise acquired by households, which households use directly, or indirectly, to satisfy their own needs and wants. In practice, most CPIs are calculated as weighted averages of the percentage price changes for a specified set, or ‘‘basket’’, of consumer products, the weights reflecting their relative importance in household consumption in some period. CPIs are widely used to index pensions and social security benefits. CPIs are also used to index other payments, such as interest payments or rents, or the prices of bonds. CPIs are also commonly used as a proxy for the general rate of inflation, even though they measure only consumer inflation. They are used by some governments or central banks to set inflation targets for purposes of monetary policy. The price data collected for CPI purposes can also be used to compile other indices, such as the price indices used to deflate household consumption expenditures in national accounts, or the purchasing power parities used to compare real levels of consumption in different countries.

Global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions of the world. The distribution of risks to near-term global growth has become more balanced relative to the October World Economic Outlook but is still tilted to the downside. The decline in oil prices could boost activity more than expected. Geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats, and risks of disruptive shifts in asset prices remain relevant. In some advanced economies, protracted low inflation or deflation also pose risks to activity. The chapter takes a region-by-region look at the recent development in the world economy and the outlook for 2015, with particular attention to notable development in countries within each region.

Data cited at: Direction of Trade Statistics, The International Monetary Fund. The Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) presents current figures on the value of merchandise exports and imports dis-aggregated according to a country's primary trading partners. Area and world aggregates are included in the display of trade flows between major areas of the world. Reported data is supplemented by estimates whenever such data is not available or current. Imports are reported on a cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis and exports are reported on a free on board (FOB) basis, with the exception of a few countries for which imports are also available FOB. Time series data includes estimates derived from reports of partner countries for non-reporting and slow-reporting countries.

Recent exchange rate movements have been unusually large, triggering a debate regarding their likely effects on trade. Historical experience in advanced and emerging market and developing economies suggests that exchange rate movements typically have sizable effects on export and import volumes. A 10 percent real effective depreciation in an economy’s currency is associated with a rise in real net exports of, on average, 1.5 percent of GDP, with substantial cross-country variation around this average. Although these effects fully materialize over a number of years, much of the adjustment occurs in the first year. The boost to exports associated with currency depreciation is found to be largest in countries with initial economic slack and with domestic financial systems that are operating normally. Some evidence suggests that the rise of global value chains has weakened the relationship between exchange rates and trade in intermediate products used as inputs into other economies’ exports. However, the bulk of global trade still consists of conventional trade, and there is little evidence of a general trend toward disconnect between exchange rates and total exports and imports.

The Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) were developed by the IMF, together with the international community, with aim of supporting analysis and assessing strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems. The Statistics Department of the IMF, disseminates data and metadata on selected FSIs provided by participating countries. For a description of the various FSIs, as well as the consolidation basis, consolidation adjustments, and accounting rules followed, please refer to the concepts and definitions document in the document tab. Reporting countries compile FSI data using different methodologies, which may also vary for different points in time for the same country. Users are advised to consult the accompanying metadata to conduct more meaning cross-country comparisons or to assess the evolution of a given FSI for any of the countries.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2023: Financial and Climate Policies for a High-Interest-Rate Era

Data cited at: International Financial Statistics (IFS), The International Monetary Fund. The International Financial Statistics database covers about 200 countries and areas, with some aggregates calculated for selected regions, plus some world totals. Topics covered include balance of payments, commodity prices, exchange rates, fund position, government finance, industrial production, interest rates, international investment position, international liquidity, international transactions, labor statistics, money and banking, national accounts, population, prices, and real effective exchange rates. The International Financial Statistics is based on various IMF data collections. It includes exchange rates series for all Fund member countries plus Anguilla, Aruba, China, PR: Hong Kong, China, PR: Macao, Montserrat, and the Netherlands Antilles. It also includes major Fund accounts series, real effective exchange rates, and other world, area, and country series. Data are available for most IMF member countries with some aggregates calculated for select regions, plus some world totals. National Accounts, Indicators of Economic Activity, Labor Markets, Prices, Government and Public Sector Finance, Financial Indicators, Balance of Payments, International Investment Position, International Reserves, Fund Accounts, External Trade, Exchange Rates, and Population.

The Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity is an innovative single framework that integrates the concept of international reserves and foreign currency liquidity by covering data on on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet international financial activities of country authorities as well as supplementary information. It aims to provide a comprehensive account of official foreign currency assets and drains on such resources arising from various foreign/domestic currency liabilities and commitments of the authorities.

The Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) database contains the aggregated surveys covering: i) Central Bank ii) Depository Corporations and iii) Other Financial Corporations. The key macroeconomic aggregates in this dataset include: i) Monetary base and broad money; ii) Credit aggregates (including credit to the private sector); and iii) Foreign assets and liabilities.   Beginning in 2009, there are two presentations of Monetary Statistics in IFS. The new presentation data follows the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) and the Monetary and Financial Statistics Compilation Guide (MFSCG), a companion to the MFSM that contains more detailed coverage of the classification, economic sectorization, valuation, and recording of financial assets and liabilities in an economy. The MFSCG gives prominence to the source data for monetary and financial statistics.   The majority of countries use the standardized report forms (SRFs) to report monetary data to the IMF and are presented under SRF Countries.   The old presentation is used for those countries that do not use the SRFs for reporting Monetary data and presented under Non-SRF Countries. The presentation of these countries will be changed to the new presentation when the countries implement the reporting of SRF-based data.   The Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (Manual) updates and merges into one volume methodological and practical aspects of the compilation process for monetary and financial statistics (MFS). Aimed at compilers and users of MFS, it offers a conceptual framework for the collection, compilation, and analytical presentation of monetary data, which provide a critical input for monetary policy formulation and monitoring.   Detailed monetary statistics based on the standardized report forms reflecting the conceptual framework of the above Manual and its predecessors.

The Principal Global Indicators (PGI) dataset provides internationally comparable data for the Group of 20 economies (G-20) and economies with systemically important financial sectors that are not members of the G-20. The PGI facilitates the monitoring of economic and financial developments for these jurisdictions. Launched in 2009, the PGI website is hosted by the IMF and is a joint undertaking of the Inter-Agency Group of Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG).

Private fixed investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global financial crisis, and there has been little recovery since. Investment has generally slowed more gradually in the rest of the world. Although housing investment fell especially sharply during the crisis, business investment accounts for the bulk of the slump, and the overriding factor holding it back has been the overall weakness of economic activity. In some countries, other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity is crucial for restoring growth in private investment.

Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down.