The BP Energy Outlook evaluates different aspects of the energy transition and highlights key issues and uncertainties of the transition. In all the scenarios considered, world GDP more than doubles by 2040, driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing developing economies.

In the business-as-usual scenario, this improvement in living standards causes energy demand to increase by around a third over the outlook period, driven by India, China, and 'Other Asia,' which together account for two-thirds of the increase. Despite this increase in energy demand, around two-thirds of the world’s population in 2050 still live in countries where average energy consumption per head is relatively low, highlighting the need for more energy.

The world continues to electrify, with around three-quarters of the increase in primary energy absorbed by the power sector. Other projections covered by the Energy Outlook to 2050:

  • Renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of energy, contributing half of the growth in global energy supplies and becoming the largest source of power by 2050.
  • Demand for oil and other liquid fuels grows for the first part of the outlook period before gradually plateauing. The increase in liquids production is initially dominated by US tight oil, but OPEC production subsequently increases as US tight oil production declines.
  • Natural gas grows robustly, supported by broad-based demand and the increasing availability of gas, aided by the continuing expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
  • Global coal consumption peaked in 2018 and continues to decrease in the following decades, with the most decline in Asian and North America's countries.

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2050, September 2020

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Fuel Shares in Primary Energy Demand by Scenario
Business-as-usual Scenario Untitled Rapid Transition Scenario Untitled Net Zero Scenario Untitled
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