COVID Lockdowns: Suppressing the Economy, Not the Virus

(02 February, 2022) According to a Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis, government-imposed lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality rates. The meta-analysis, which reviewed studies of the effects of compulsory non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as travel bans, school and business closures, and shelter-in-place orders, finds that that government-imposed lockdowns in Europe and the United States reduced COVID-19 mortality by only 0.2% on average.

Among COVID restrictions, only closure of bars and restaurants consistently demonstrated some effect — reducing COVID mortality by 10.6%. Findings also suggested a significant correlation between mandatory masking and a decrease in COVID-19 mortality rates, but only two of the studies specifically examined this measure. 

• Data on COVID deaths and the stringency of government response for Europe, Russia, and the U.S. collected by Our World in Data shows no correlation, or even a positive correlation, between the degree of lockdown measures (measured by University if Oxford's stringency index) and the number of COVID deaths per million population during the three waves of pandemic, supporting the conclusion of Johns Hopkins meta-analysis.
• While there is no broad-based evidence of noticeable impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality, the evidence does indicate significant economic damage resulting from lockdowns. A comparison of GDP growth and lockdown stringency index reveals that the tighter the anti-COVID restrictions, the deeper the recession in Q2 2020 — the deepest point of coronavirus crisis.
• Revision of lockdown policies in line with the meta-analysis findings may support global economic growth in 2022.